Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

We Won a “Rising Star of Politics” Award!

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Politics Magazine Logorisingstar

Campaign & Elections’ Politics magazine today announced our CEO, Gaurav Oberoi, as one of the 2010 Rising Stars of Politics. One of the most prestigious honors in politics, the award goes to people 35 or under who have already made a significant mark in political 
consulting,
 campaigning
 or 
advocacy.

The magazine chose 15 Democrats, 15 Republicans and 11 nonpartisan leaders this year out of a pool of several hundred nominees. Gaurav was awarded one of the nonpartisan awards for his work on Precision Polling. Past Rising Stars include Karen Hughes, George Stephanopoulos, David Axelrod, Paul Begala, Donna Brazile, James Carville, Rahm Emanuel, and Laura Ingraham. The Rising Stars will be honored on June 12 in Washington D.C.

We’re honored and grateful for the recognition, it motivates us to work harder at reaching our goal: to make polling accessible to everyone, even the smallest of campaigns. It’s only been ten months since we started the company, but now with dozens of customers (including the DNC), validation from renowned pollsters (Mark Blumenthal), and two political awards under our belt (we also won a Pollie), we’re beginning to feel like we’re on the right track.

Once again, our thanks go to our customers for shaping the product into what it is today: an easy-to-use, fast, and affordable polling solution that helps consultants, pollsters, and campaign managers win races.

How Accurate are Automated Polls?

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Automated polling is gaining popularity as a much lower cost alternative to live-interviewer polls. But it’s young enough that many in the industry are still uncertain about the reliability of these polls. How do you know that you reached the right person, and not a child? Are respondents just mashing buttons?

The data released on this topic (especially in the wake of the 2008 election) suggests that in practice, automated polling is just as accurate at predicting election results as live-interviewer polls (and in many cases, more accurate). This methodology is well on its way to acceptance by mainstream research and media outlets.

Here are some resources on this topic:

1. AAPOR Report

Probably the most authoritative source is a study of the methodology of primary polls in 2008 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research in which they state:

All of the final pre-primary polls were conducted by telephone, using either CATI or IVR systems. We found no evidence that one approach consistently out-performed the other – that is, the polls using CATI or IVR were about equally accurate. – PAGE 30

And:

The use of either computerized telephone interviewing (CATI) techniques or interactive voice response (IVR) techniques made no difference to the accuracy of estimates. – PAGE 77

2. Mark Blumental

Mark is an editor at Pollster.com who regularly covers automated polls. A definitive article is:

In Defense of Automated Surveys, September 2009

He also wrote this report for Public Opinion Quarterly. It includes a discussion of IVR with several examples and quotes supporting it.

Here’s a blurb from one of his other articles:

As PPP’s Tom Jensen noted earlier this week, analyses conducted by the National Council on Public Polls (in 2004), AAPOR’s Ad Hoc Committee on Presidential Primary Polling (2008), and the Wall Street Journal’s Carl Bialik all found that automated polls performed about as well as live interviewer surveys in terms of their final poll accuracy. To that list I can add two papers presented at last week’s AAPOR conference (one by Harvard’s Chase Harrison and Farleigh Dickinson Unversity’s Krista Jenkins and Peter Woolley) and papers on prior conferences on poll conducted from 2002 to 2006 (by Joel Bloom and Charles Franklin and yours truly). All of these assessed poll conducted in the final weeks or months of the campaign and saw no significant difference between automated and live interviewer polls in terms of their accuracy.

He also reports on their gaining prominence back in 2006:

He’s not kidding. Of the 1,031 poll results logged into the Pollster.com database so far in the 2006 cycle from statewide races for Senate and Governor, more than half (55%) have been done by automated pollsters Rasmussen Reports, SurveyUSA or over the Internet by Zogby International. And that does not count the surveys conducted once a month by SurveyUSA in all 50 states (450 so far this year alone). Nor does it count the automated surveys recently conducted in 30 congressional districts by Constituent Dynamics and RT Strategies.

3. Wall Street Journal

The Journal wrote an excellent article on the use of automated polling for the 2008 presidential campaign, Press 1 for McCain, 2 for Obama (Aug 2008). They discuss the criticisms of automated polling, but also bring up the strengths that put it on equal footing with live interviews.

Recorded polls, however, offer several advantages… Politicians’ names are pronounced correctly and identically each time, and responses entered correctly are recorded correctly.

There also is evidence that automated polls inspire honesty, particularly on sensitive topics. Stephen Blumberg, who conducts polls for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says that in tests, people responding with touch tones instead of by voice were more likely to admit they had multiple sex partners, or traded sex for money or drugs.

See the author’s companion blog post.

4. Business Wire

In this November 2004 article, they find an IVR pollster (Survey USA) as having the highest accuracy of 104 polling firms.

Top 10 Ways to Improve Your Poll’s Response Rate

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Tight budget constraints limit the kind of research and engagement political campaigns (or non-profits, or unions) are able to do. The most common question we get is: how much will it cost me to run a poll with 500 or 1000 completed responses?

The answer: it depends. The cost is almost entirely based on the response rate - how many people complete your survey, vs. how many hang up or don’t answer. The higher your response rate, the fewer calls you have to make, so the less the cost.

Organizations contacting their members tend to get response rates between 10-25%. We have seen political polls to the general public get response rates in the 3-7% range, though some have gone as high as 10%.

So how do you boost the response rate and make every call count? It turns out to be more of an art than a science because it depends on so many human factors. Based on what has worked well for our clients, we have compiled a list of the top 10 tips for improving your response rate. If you have experience with these approaches, or suggestions for others, please share them in the comments.

  1. Use a local caller-id
    The caller-id is the first thing someone sees when you call them. If it’s from a local number, they are much more likely to pick up the phone. Precision Polling lets you select your own caller-id.
  2. Call in the early evening
    If they aren’t home, they aren’t going to answer. The best time to call on weekdays is 6-8:30pm. Friday and Saturday evenings aren’t great, though you can call at almost any time on Sunday.
  3. Keep your intro snappy
    Get straight to why you’re calling in the simplest words possible, or you may risk them hanging up. The best intros squeeze in what you are calling about; why the participant should care; who you are; and how long it will take. Of course, you have to also make sure that you meet any disclosure requirements (some states require an organization name and phone number, for example).
  4. Use a recognizable voice
    If polling the general public, try to get a celebrity to record your poll (e.g. TV anchor, football coach), or failing that, use a female voice with a neutral accent. If you’re polling your own members, ask someone that they will recognize to record the poll, like your organization’s president.
  5. Pump up the volume
    Be sure to test your poll to make sure it’s easy to hear. Recording with a loud and clear voice gives the best results.
  6. Keep your poll short
    Automated polls work best when you’re asking no more than 10 questions (2-3 minutes). Any longer, and people start to hang up. As a rough rule of thumb, for every 10 additional questions, your response rate will drop by 1%. One way around this is to structure your survey so the important questions are at the front; and then define the survey to be considered as “complete” if the respondent finishes these important questions, with the remaining questions as optional (though useful) data.
  7. Use simple sentences
    Simple language and short sentences make it easier to follow questions, especially when listening to them over the phone.
  8. Keep it relevant
    Some of the highest response rates we’ve seen are for targeted local issues (e.g. mayor of your town, or pollution in a small neighborhood), or widely discussed topics (e.g. healthcare). Introduce your survey in a way to make it relevant, perhaps by mentioning a hot-button issue you know the respondent will have an opinion on.
  9. Call likely voters
    If possible for your survey, call those people who are most likely to be actively engaged in the political process (look for good voting histories) because they generally are more willing to pick up the phone and share their opinions. Outside of politics, looks for other signs of engagement, like member attendance. Of course, only do this if it won’t bias your desired results.
  10. Speak their language
    We’ve had customers record polls in dozens of different languages: Spanish, Mandarin, Vietnamese, and Russian to name a few. You can do the same by recording questions in multiple languages and starting your poll by asking which language they prefer. The response rates tend to be much higher for non-English-speaking groups receiving a phone call in their native language than it is for English-speakers receiving a phone call in English.

Partying and Polling with Publicola

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

Publicola LogoSeattle is a hotbed for new media experiments, and Publicola is no different. It’s a politically focused blog run by former editors of The Stranger, has attracted a series of investors, and in just a year is read by everyone in Washington politics.

Last year we sponsored a poll that Publicola did for the Seattle Mayor’s race. It got so much coverage in other local media, and such a large surge in traffic to Publicola, that they decided to start running polls on a regular basis. So last night, at Publicola’s 1 year anniversary party at the Crocodile (with some great bands), we jointly announced plans to feature polls once or twice a month on Publicola’s website. A respected local polling firm, EMC Research, will help design and analyze results, and yours truly will be the engine that powers it all.

We love helping new media find cost effective tools to be able to compete with the big guys. The local TV stations can afford to purchase surveys from SurveyUSA, but until we arrived on the scene, innovative blogs like Publicola had no retort. Now they can participate too, and readers benefit from better reporting all around. We’re just happy to make it easy and affordable for anyone to gather data from the phone.

Mark Blumenthal: “Surprisingly powerful”

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

National Journal LogoMark Blumenthal, editor of pollster.com and one of the formest experts in the field of polling, wrote a piece in the National Journal that places Precision Polling at the heart of a trend towards accessible polling.

In his post titled “Everyone’s a Pollster”, Mark calls Precision Polling “surprisingly powerful” and goes on to list some of our more sophisticated features like automatic crosstabs and weighting. He also talks about some of the downsides of a more level playing field, such as ensuring a high quality bar in reporting polls. As for us, we’re just delighted that even the pros agree: Precision Polling makes it easy for anyone to gather data from the phone.

Read about us in Mark Blumenthal’s column in the National Journal.